Fleet Operations Support
Since 1994, Fleet operational support has been a major focus of the OASiS Division’s operations. The primary thrust of this work has been assessment of alternative courses of action (COA) for fleet operational and contingency plans. This support extensively employs use of the Naval Simulation System (NSS) with the goal of assessing the viability and effectiveness of own force capabilities, plans and tactics versus opposing force capabilities, strategies, and tactics. Scenarios examined range from the small one-versus-one or few-versus-few tactical situations (TACSITS) all the way to theater level campaigns with multiple simultaneous warfare interactions.
Antisubmarine Warfare Example:
Analysis is conducted with man-in-the-loop input and review.
NSS is used to simulate potential warfare interactions and outcomes of war fighting activities including surveillance and reconnaissance, detection and classification, information transmission and distribution, resource allocation and expenditure, engagement, damage assessment, attrition and mission accomplishment. This is done in a sea of estimated or measured parameters, each with some degree of mathematical uncertainty, which describe the capabilities of all the entities in the simulation. Multiple replications of the baseline scenario are used to produce point estimates for the average expected result for thousands of performance and effectiveness metrics of interest. But importantly, due to its Monte Carlo nature, a histogram of potential outcomes for any metric can be produced which gives the decision maker a quantifiable insight into the risks and variability associated with a particular COA or acquisition decision.
Average Blue Losses: 2.4 Std Dev: 2.2 Min: 0; Max 13 Average Red Kills: 5.2 Std Dev: 1.5 Min: 1; Max 9
Fleet operational support is also provided in the Western Pacific theater during exercises and war games and is intended also to support in situ crisis planning and execution. NSS analysts from COMPACFLT headquarters support war games and exercises at Western Pacific commands.
In addition to COA analysis, fleet support includes assessment of the war fighting impact of placing specific systems on a “fast track” for fleet introduction. This support provides fleet commanders with a quantifiable basis for making “actionable recommendations” with respect to fleet and the Navy’s near term investment priorities.
The OASiS Division has been pioneering the use of the NSS in support of Naval exercises in the Pacific Fleet. The process includes preview simulations of exercise plans (both own force and opposing force) with excursions, a two step recap and validation process using actual data from the reconstructed exercise and excursions whereby various exercise constraints can be removed (such as allowing live fire and kill removal) and “what-ifs” examined. With a validated model, the excursion analyses lead to quantitative insights into fleet capabilities and performance in other environments, with alternative systems and tactics, improved training and readiness and the impact of exercise participant recommendations.
In recent years, the OASiS main focus for Fleet Operational Support has been in the Pacific, with direct support to the Commander, US Pacific Fleet (COMPACFLT) and subordinate fleet and task commanders. OASiS also assists COMPACFLT in direct support/collaboration with a variety of other commands which include the Commander, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) “Deep Blue”, OPNAV N81, Metron currently provides onsite and offsite support to COMPACFLT N00WAR, the Navy Warfare Development Command (NWDC), and the Naval Mine Warfare and ASW Center of Excellence (NMAWC). Metron has also conducted analyses and/or provided OR support to Systems Commands (SPAWAR, NAVAIR, NAVSEA), the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), and the Naval War College (NWC).
“Preview” analysis provides distributions of possible outcomes for key metrics. “Recap” assesses actual outcomes; helps answer the “Whys”. “Excursions” assess value of alternative COAs and systems.